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Below are the Active Listings as of 1/18/15, compared to last year at the same time. Overall we have fewer homes available for sale than in 2014, but the picture varies a lot by price range. These numbers do not count any properties that may be under contract, either UCB or Pending:
Over $300,000 we see plenty more supply than last year at this time but under $200,000 there is far less. Demand is likely to grow at the bottom end first, creating a shortage; the top end of the market has plenty of supply and this would remain true even if demand were to increase significantly in this segment. The other implication of this change in the mix is that the average price for active listings has increased even though the asking price of any specific home has not. This effect can lead to misunderstanding by sellers who may get over-optimistic.
From the chart above we see active luxury market listings $1M+ up 13-20% year-over-year. By contrast, looking at the chart below of Pending listings $1M+ you can see we’re slightly off this year versus last year (-4%). So, while the message for the broader market might be supply lagging a slightly improved demand, in the luxury sector just the opposite is true. Supply up and demand slightly off last year at this time.
On a positive note, look at the huge upswing in pending sales last year about this time for the next several months. This is our sweet spot selling season! All of our local events are bringing prospective buyers to the valley in droves, so we expect to see a repeat performance this high season.